May 2012 Fact Sheet
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UK Q1 GDP was dismal, showing a fall of 0.2% which, after the contraction of 0.3% in the previous three months, has pushed the UK back into a technical recession. The outcome does seem to be at odds with the survey data, which has been more upbeat, but at the end of the day these are the official figures and it simply reinforces the view that there will be very little growth in the UK economy this year. In the US, the Q1 GDP figure came in at 2.2% annualised, slightly behind consensus but within the forecast range. Unquestionably, the US seems to be in much better shape than the UK at present. The markets shrugged off the macro data and focused more on the corporate results. In the US, two thirds of companies have produced numbers ahead of consensus. Once again corporate US is showing that it is generally in good shape. In the UK company results have also largely pleased with Shell, WPP and Pearson producing good outcomes.
During the month we sold our holding in Johnson Matthey. The shares were up 26% year to date compared with a market up by 3%. The re-rating has been on the back of improved vehicle manufacturing in the US, but with the shares now on a prospective p/e of 17x, we felt that they were too expensive.
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Top 10 Holdings % Findlay Park American Fund USD 6.00% AXA Framlington American Fund 3.96% Polar Cap North American Fund 3.48% Tesco 5.50% 2019 3.13% BlackRock European Dynamic A 2.63% Royal Dutch Shell B 2.61% Glaxosmithkline 2.41% Vodafone Group 2.28% M&G Optimal Income 1.97% HSBC 1.96% Total 30.43%
Investment Themes
Fidelity Global Inflation-Linked Bond Fund
A specialist fixed interest fund with c. $450m in assets under management. The fund invests exclusively in index-linked bonds issued by governments around the globe, with a strong bias away from the UK. The fund has displayed low levels of volatility combined with a low level of correlation to global equity markets since it was launched in 2008. Because the currency exposure is left un-hedged, it will benefit from any further weakening of pound sterling against other major currencies. It also aims to offer investors some protection against inflation.
The Ferox Salar Fund
The Ferox Salar Fund is a global convertibles fund aiming to offer lowleveraged exposure to the favourable risk/reward upside potential of convertible bonds. The fund has $449m of assets at present and is ungeared. There are 160 positions in the portfolio with an average life of 3 years and turnover has remained low. This is a UCITS III, Dublin domiciled, tax efficient fund with a good yield - active in a market that offers investors upside. The managers are well regarded, experienced and have a strong track record.
Balfour Beatty
Balfour Beatty is a leading UK engineering, construction, services and investment business. The company is involved in building, civil and rail construction and invests in privately funded infrastructure assets and developments. The group operates almost exclusively in the UK and the US. The UK government’s proposals to step up infrastructure spending by harnessing the fire power of pension funds could be of great benefit to major construction companies such as Balfour Beatty. The group is capitalised at £1.7 billion and has net cash on the balance sheet and has an above average dividend yield. The current order book is £16 billion, which should tide them over nicely until the new government programme kicks in.
Rolls Royce
The combination of a strong balance sheet, a formidable order book and the visibility of revenue from the servicing element of the current installed base of aircraft engines make this an attractive stock. The group remains structurally well positioned to benefit from medium-term growth as the introduction of new aircraft platforms will drive market share gains. Roll Royce’s young fleet of engines are expected to fare better than its peers in the context of further capacity reductions. Marine and Energy should continue to grow strongly as they benefit from the Oil & Gas demand. Cash generation and the balance sheet remains strong which leaves the group the most highly rated stock in the aerospace and defence sector.
Intercontinental Hotels Group
Intercontinental Hotels Group is the world’s largest hotels group by rooms and operates the Holiday Inns, Intercontinental and Crowne Plaza brands. They own seven different hotel brands selling over 146 million rooms per annum with 666,000 rooms in over 4,500 hotels all over the world. 85% of revenue is fee based with ownership of asset the other 15%. The company has a high return on capital and is very cash generative. Sales are 60% US, 20% Asia Pacific and 20% Emerging Markets. The group is trading on a 20% discount to US peers, with room rates and occupancy levels increasing. The group is financially in a strong position and a recent debt refinancing has made this even more secure. Cash generation remains very strong and when combined with long term industry room growth, market share gains, industry leading margins and the power of the its global brands, IHG looks set to deliver attractive long term growth.
Registered in England Number: 1754391. Registered Office: 90 Long Acre, London WC2E 9RA.
The Cheviot Balanced Fund is a sub-fund of CF Cheviot Investments Funds. The Authorised Corporate Director is Capita Financial Managers Limited.

